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Net Dollar Retention

Revenue retained from existing customers including expansion, contraction, and churn.

Median NDR fell from 109% (2021) to a 101% trough (2024), with a tentative recovery forecast.

2025E and 2026E are the survey's estimates (dashed).

View data table

Median NDR fell from 109% (2021) to a 101% trough (2024), with a tentative recovery forecast.
Year	Net Dollar Retention (%)
2022	106%
2023	102%
2024	101%
2025E	102%
2026E	104%

2023

102%

2024

101%

2025E

102%

2026E

104%

Source: KBCM/Sapphire Private SaaS Survey 2021–2025Verified

Every Metric, in Full

The same series as tables, every metric at once. The explorer above plots one metric at a time; this section is the complete record. The index table gives each metric’s most recent plotted point, the range observed across the plotted years, and the finding the series supports; each metric below expands to its year-by-year figures. A year suffixed E is the survey’s forward estimate rather than a reported result. Units differ (percent, multiple, months), so every figure is printed with its unit rather than left to context.

Every metric in the Metric Explorer: the most recent plotted point, the range observed across the plotted years, the years covered, and the finding each series supports. A year suffixed E is the survey's forward estimate, not a reported result. Units differ by metric (percent, multiple, or months) and are printed with every figure rather than assumed.
Metric	Most recent point	Range observed	Years	What the series shows
Net Dollar Retention	104% (2026E)	101% to 106%	2022–2026E	Median NDR fell from 109% (2021) to a 101% trough (2024), with a tentative recovery forecast.
Net Dollar Retention, Pre-ZIRP (median, 2018–2021)	109% (2021)	101.8% to 109%	2018–2021	On the median basis, NDR held near 102% for three years (2018: 102.7%, 2019: 102%, 2020: 101.8%) before the 109% ZIRP peak in 2021. The peak was the anomaly, not the 101% that followed.
Gross Dollar Retention	91% (2026E)	85% to 91%	2021–2026E	GDR has held flat at ~86–87% through the decline – stability here is the absence of improvement, not health.
Expansion Share of New ARR (pooled, 2022–2024)	52% (2024)	42% to 52%	2022–2024	Pooled expansion share rose from 42% (2022) to 52% (2024) – crossing majority only in 2024, and only above $25M ARR.
Expansion Share of New ARR (median, 2018–2021)	46% (2021)	36% to 46%	2018–2021	The median company never exceeded 46% expansion share – the land-and-expand promise was never a universal default.
Net Magic Number	0.7× (2026E)	0.5× to 0.7×	2022–2026E	Frozen at 0.50 for four consecutive years (2022–2025E) – the growth engine has stalled.
Gross Magic Number	0.82× (2026E)	0.64× to 0.82×	2022–2026E	Gross efficiency holds at 0.64–0.70 – the gap to Net Magic is the churn tax.
Churn Tax (Gross − Net Magic Number)	0.12× (2026E)	0.12× to 0.2×	2022–2026E	The churn tax runs 0.14–0.20 – roughly a quarter of S&M output goes to filling the churn hole.
Total OpEx (% of Revenue)	75% (2026E)	75% to 118%	2022–2026E	A 43-point OpEx reduction (118% → 75%) – the cut that bought margin while retention held flat.
EBITDA Margin	1% (2026E)	-47% to 1%	2022–2026E	EBITDA improved 48 points (−47% → +1%) while every retention metric held flat or worsened.
Rule of 40 Achievement Rate	5% (2024)	5% to 11%	2022–2024	Achievement fell from 11% to 5% – margin gains did not translate into balanced performance.
New-Only CAC Payback	37 mo (2024)	31 mo to 37 mo	2022–2024	New-only payback stretched from 31 to 37 months – past the point where churn beats payback.
Fully-Loaded CAC Payback	24 mo (2024)	24 mo	2022–2024	Fully-loaded payback held at 24 months while new-only stretched – the divergence is the hidden cost.
Seat-Based Pricing Prevalence	40% (2025)	33% to 41%	2022–2025	Seat-based pricing has held near 40% across survey editions even as AI-driven seat reduction accelerated.
Expansion-to-churn coverage (×)	1.07× (2024)	1.07× to 1.6×	2021–2024	Coverage thinned from 1.6× to 1.07× between 2021 and 2024 (middle years interpolated).

Net Dollar Retention

2022–2026E · most recent 104% (2026E)

Revenue retained from existing customers including expansion, contraction, and churn.

Net Dollar Retention, by data year, in %. Revenue retained from existing customers including expansion, contraction, and churn. Median NDR fell from 109% (2021) to a 101% trough (2024), with a tentative recovery forecast. Additional columns give the same data year as each later survey edition reported it; the readings differ because the respondent panel changes, and they are never averaged together.
Data year	Net Dollar Retention (%)	As reported in the 2023 survey	As reported in the 2024 survey	As reported in the 2025 survey
2022	106%	108%	102%	106%
2023	102%	—	102%	102%
2024	101%	—	—	101%
2025E	102%	—	—	—
2026E	104%	—	—	—

Median NDR fell from 109% (2021) to a 101% trough (2024), with a tentative recovery forecast.

Net Dollar Retention, Pre-ZIRP (median, 2018–2021)

2018–2021 · most recent 109% (2021)

The median-basis NDR readings for 2018–2021. A different statistic from the main NDR trajectory (which switches to a pooled basis in 2022), shown separately and never spliced onto it.

Net Dollar Retention, Pre-ZIRP (median, 2018–2021), by data year, in %. The median-basis NDR readings for 2018–2021. A different statistic from the main NDR trajectory (which switches to a pooled basis in 2022), shown separately and never spliced onto it. On the median basis, NDR held near 102% for three years (2018: 102.7%, 2019: 102%, 2020: 101.8%) before the 109% ZIRP peak in 2021. The peak was the anomaly, not the 101% that followed.
Data year	Net Dollar Retention, Pre-ZIRP (median, 2018–2021) (%)
2018	102.7%
2019	102%
2020	101.8%
2021	109%

On the median basis, NDR held near 102% for three years (2018: 102.7%, 2019: 102%, 2020: 101.8%) before the 109% ZIRP peak in 2021. The peak was the anomaly, not the 101% that followed.

Gross Dollar Retention

2021–2026E · most recent 91% (2026E)

Revenue retained from existing customers before any expansion – the churn floor.

Gross Dollar Retention, by data year, in %. Revenue retained from existing customers before any expansion – the churn floor. GDR has held flat at ~86–87% through the decline – stability here is the absence of improvement, not health.
Data year	Gross Dollar Retention (%)
2021	86%
2022	86%
2023	85%
2024	86%
2025E	89%
2026E	91%

GDR has held flat at ~86–87% through the decline – stability here is the absence of improvement, not health.

Expansion Share of New ARR (pooled, 2022–2024)

2022–2024 · most recent 52% (2024)

Share of new ARR coming from existing customers, dollar-weighted across all respondents.

Expansion Share of New ARR (pooled, 2022–2024), by data year, in %. Share of new ARR coming from existing customers, dollar-weighted across all respondents. Pooled expansion share rose from 42% (2022) to 52% (2024) – crossing majority only in 2024, and only above $25M ARR.
Data year	Expansion Share of New ARR (pooled, 2022–2024) (%)
2022	42%
2023	45%
2024	52%

Pooled expansion share rose from 42% (2022) to 52% (2024) – crossing majority only in 2024, and only above $25M ARR.

Expansion Share of New ARR (median, 2018–2021)

2018–2021 · most recent 46% (2021)

The same measure for the typical (median) company – a DIFFERENT statistic from the pooled series, never to be spliced onto it.

Expansion Share of New ARR (median, 2018–2021), by data year, in %. The same measure for the typical (median) company – a DIFFERENT statistic from the pooled series, never to be spliced onto it. The median company never exceeded 46% expansion share – the land-and-expand promise was never a universal default.
Data year	Expansion Share of New ARR (median, 2018–2021) (%)
2018	37%
2019	36%
2020	36%
2021	46%

The median company never exceeded 46% expansion share – the land-and-expand promise was never a universal default.

Net Magic Number

2022–2026E · most recent 0.7× (2026E)

Net new ARR per dollar of S&M spend, after churn – the growth engine’s true efficiency.

Net Magic Number, by data year, in ×. Net new ARR per dollar of S&M spend, after churn – the growth engine’s true efficiency. Frozen at 0.50 for four consecutive years (2022–2025E) – the growth engine has stalled.
Data year	Net Magic Number (×)
2022	0.5×
2023	0.5×
2024	0.5×
2025E	0.5×
2026E	0.7×

Frozen at 0.50 for four consecutive years (2022–2025E) – the growth engine has stalled.

Gross Magic Number

2022–2026E · most recent 0.82× (2026E)

New ARR per dollar of S&M spend, before accounting for churn.

Gross Magic Number, by data year, in ×. New ARR per dollar of S&M spend, before accounting for churn. Gross efficiency holds at 0.64–0.70 – the gap to Net Magic is the churn tax.
Data year	Gross Magic Number (×)
2022	0.65×
2023	0.66×
2024	0.64×
2025E	0.7×
2026E	0.82×

Gross efficiency holds at 0.64–0.70 – the gap to Net Magic is the churn tax.

Churn Tax (Gross − Net Magic Number)

2022–2026E · most recent 0.12× (2026E)

The share of S&M output consumed by replacement revenue rather than growth.

Churn Tax (Gross − Net Magic Number), by data year, in ×. The share of S&M output consumed by replacement revenue rather than growth. The churn tax runs 0.14–0.20 – roughly a quarter of S&M output goes to filling the churn hole.
Data year	Churn Tax (Gross − Net Magic Number) (×)
2022	0.15×
2023	0.16×
2024	0.14×
2025E	0.2×
2026E	0.12×

The churn tax runs 0.14–0.20 – roughly a quarter of S&M output goes to filling the churn hole.

Total OpEx (% of Revenue)

2022–2026E · most recent 75% (2026E)

Combined S&M, R&D, and G&A spend as a share of revenue.

Total OpEx (% of Revenue), by data year, in %. Combined S&M, R&D, and G&A spend as a share of revenue. A 43-point OpEx reduction (118% → 75%) – the cut that bought margin while retention held flat.
Data year	Total OpEx (% of Revenue) (%)
2022	118%
2023	99%
2024	88%
2025E	82%
2026E	75%

A 43-point OpEx reduction (118% → 75%) – the cut that bought margin while retention held flat.

EBITDA Margin

2022–2026E · most recent 1% (2026E)

Operating profitability as a share of revenue.

EBITDA Margin, by data year, in %. Operating profitability as a share of revenue. EBITDA improved 48 points (−47% → +1%) while every retention metric held flat or worsened.
Data year	EBITDA Margin (%)
2022	-47%
2023	-24%
2024	-12%
2025E	-4%
2026E	1%

EBITDA improved 48 points (−47% → +1%) while every retention metric held flat or worsened.

Rule of 40 Achievement Rate

2022–2024 · most recent 5% (2024)

Share of companies whose growth rate plus profit margin clears 40.

Rule of 40 Achievement Rate, by data year, in %. Share of companies whose growth rate plus profit margin clears 40. Achievement fell from 11% to 5% – margin gains did not translate into balanced performance.
Data year	Rule of 40 Achievement Rate (%)
2022	11%
2024	5%

Achievement fell from 11% to 5% – margin gains did not translate into balanced performance.

New-Only CAC Payback

2022–2024 · most recent 37 mo (2024)

Months to recover acquisition cost, counting new-business spend only.

New-Only CAC Payback, by data year, in mo. Months to recover acquisition cost, counting new-business spend only. New-only payback stretched from 31 to 37 months – past the point where churn beats payback.
Data year	New-Only CAC Payback (mo)
2022	31 mo
2024	37 mo

New-only payback stretched from 31 to 37 months – past the point where churn beats payback.

Fully-Loaded CAC Payback

2022–2024 · most recent 24 mo (2024)

Months to recover acquisition cost on a fully-loaded basis, including R&D, onboarding, CS, and overhead.

Fully-Loaded CAC Payback, by data year, in mo. Months to recover acquisition cost on a fully-loaded basis, including R&D, onboarding, CS, and overhead. Fully-loaded payback held at 24 months while new-only stretched – the divergence is the hidden cost.
Data year	Fully-Loaded CAC Payback (mo)
2022	24 mo
2024	24 mo

Fully-loaded payback held at 24 months while new-only stretched – the divergence is the hidden cost.

Seat-Based Pricing Prevalence

2022–2025 · most recent 40% (2025)

Share of companies pricing primarily per seat.

Seat-Based Pricing Prevalence, by data year, in %. Share of companies pricing primarily per seat. Seat-based pricing has held near 40% across survey editions even as AI-driven seat reduction accelerated.
Data year	Seat-Based Pricing Prevalence (%)
2022	41%
2023	33%
2024	41%
2025	40%

Seat-based pricing has held near 40% across survey editions even as AI-driven seat reduction accelerated.

Expansion-to-churn coverage (×)

2021–2024 · most recent 1.07× (2024)

How many times over net expansion covers gross churn: 1.6× in 2021, barely 1.07× by 2024.

Expansion-to-churn coverage (×), by data year, in ×. How many times over net expansion covers gross churn: 1.6× in 2021, barely 1.07× by 2024. Coverage thinned from 1.6× to 1.07× between 2021 and 2024 (middle years interpolated).
Data year	Expansion-to-churn coverage (×) (×)
2021	1.6×
2022	1.43×
2023	1.17×
2024	1.07×

Coverage thinned from 1.6× to 1.07× between 2021 and 2024 (middle years interpolated).

Firmographic Cross-Sections

Where the survey published a metric cut by company profile, the cross-section is here in full. Each one is a single-vintage reading: one metric, one edition, only the years that edition reported on a consistent band taxonomy. Bands are never comparable across editions, so these are cross-sections, not time series.

Net Dollar Retention by arr size band

KBCM-2023 · FY2022, FY2023

Net Dollar Retention by arr size band, KBCM-2023 edition, as reported (KBCM-2023). FY2022–FY2023, KBCM-2023 edition. Size bands are not comparable to pre-2022 editions, which used a different taxonomy. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
ARR size band	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)
<$10M	104%	100%
$10M–$25M	114%	106%
$25M–$50M	108%	104%
$50M–$100M	107%	102%
>$100M	107%	108%

Vintage KBCM-2023 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

Net Dollar Retention by percentile / quartile

KBCM-2024 · FY2022, FY2023, FY2024

Net Dollar Retention by percentile / quartile, KBCM-2024 edition, as reported (KBCM-2024). FY2022–FY2024, KBCM-2024 edition. Dispersion across the respondent distribution: the median NDR trajectory hides this spread. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
Percentile / quartile	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)	FY2024 (%)
25th Percentile	96%	96%	96%
75th Percentile	110%	108%	109%
Top Quartile	110%	108%	109%

Vintage KBCM-2024 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

NDR by AI Selection by ai cohort

KBCM-2025 · FY2022, FY2023, FY2024, FY2025E, FY2026E

NDR by AI Selection by ai cohort, KBCM-2025 edition, as reported (KBCM-2025). FY2022–FY2026E, KBCM-2025 edition. Forward years (2025E/2026E) are the edition's own projections. The AI-Native recovery to 104% is the survey's expectation; the AI-pricing finding projects the opposite, net retention below 98% as seat compression lands. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
AI cohort	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)	FY2024 (%)	FY2025E (%)	FY2026E (%)
AI-Native	106%	102%	100%	104%	104%
AI-Interested	100%	101%	102%	100%	103%

Vintage KBCM-2025 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

Gross Dollar Retention by arr size band

KBCM-2023 · FY2022, FY2023

Gross Dollar Retention by arr size band, KBCM-2023 edition, as reported (KBCM-2023). FY2022–FY2023, KBCM-2023 edition. GDR is only reported on a comparable basis from 2022; size bands differ from pre-2022 editions. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
ARR size band	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)
<$10M	83%	87%
$10M–$25M	89%	88%
$25M–$50M	86%	87%
$50M–$100M	91%	91%
>$100M	89%	87%

Vintage KBCM-2023 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

Gross Dollar Retention by percentile / quartile

KBCM-2024 · FY2022, FY2023, FY2024

Gross Dollar Retention by percentile / quartile, KBCM-2024 edition, as reported (KBCM-2024). FY2022–FY2024, KBCM-2024 edition. Dispersion of the churn floor across the respondent distribution. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
Percentile / quartile	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)	FY2024 (%)
25th Percentile	81%	82%	82%
75th Percentile	94%	93%	95%
Top Quartile	94%	93%	95%

Vintage KBCM-2024 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

GDR by AI Selection by ai cohort

KBCM-2025 · FY2022, FY2023, FY2024, FY2025E, FY2026E

GDR by AI Selection by ai cohort, KBCM-2025 edition, as reported (KBCM-2025). FY2022–FY2026E, KBCM-2025 edition. Forward years (2025E/2026E) are the edition's own projections. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
AI cohort	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)	FY2024 (%)	FY2025E (%)	FY2026E (%)
AI-Native	88%	85%	87%	89%	91%
AI-Interested	83%	83%	85%	86%	88%

Vintage KBCM-2025 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

Gross Magic Number by arr size band

KBCM-2023 · FY2022

Gross Magic Number by arr size band, KBCM-2023 edition, as reported (KBCM-2023). FY2022, KBCM-2023 edition. Single-year cross-section; size bands are not comparable to other editions. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
ARR size band	FY2022 (%)
<$10M	0.86%
$10M–$25M	0.7%
$25M–$50M	0.7%
$50M–$100M	0.77%
>$100M	0.75%

Vintage KBCM-2023 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

EBITDA Margin by arr size band

KBCM-2023 · FY2022

EBITDA Margin by arr size band, KBCM-2023 edition, as reported (KBCM-2023). FY2022, KBCM-2023 edition. Single-year cross-section; size bands are not comparable to other editions. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
ARR size band	FY2022 (%)
<$10M	56%
$10M–$25M	37%
$25M–$50M	35%
$50M–$100M	8%
>$100M	32%

Vintage KBCM-2023 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.

Rule of 40 by percentile / quartile

KBCM-2024 · FY2022, FY2023, FY2024

Rule of 40 by percentile / quartile, KBCM-2024 edition, as reported (KBCM-2024). FY2022–FY2024, KBCM-2024 edition. Dispersion of the Rule-of-40 score across the respondent distribution. Bands are not comparable across editions, so this cross-section uses a single vintage only.
Percentile / quartile	FY2022 (%)	FY2023 (%)	FY2024 (%)
25th Percentile	33%	15%	4%
75th Percentile	20%	21%	31%
Top Quartile	20%	21%	31%

Vintage KBCM-2024 · figures certified · bands not comparable across editions.